Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.486267 2.977985 3.528879 4.189932 4.959652 5.825567 6.871344
2025-11-30 1.736211 2.346424 3.104164 4.106648 5.389474 6.966572 9.041516
2025-12-07 1.236991 1.854405 2.690957 3.891134 5.549449 7.737647 10.816299
2025-12-14 0.961652 1.576717 2.474500 3.853139 5.882488 8.718530 12.928661
2025-12-21 0.772668 1.373278 2.310096 3.837155 6.211468 9.696290 15.109226
2025-12-28 0.681519 1.298707 2.317631 4.064425 6.907326 11.252086 18.255192
2026-01-04 0.587941 1.197911 2.260830 4.171571 7.416295 12.563371 21.145016
2026-01-11 0.522783 1.132821 2.249611 4.345074 8.041288 14.101347 24.510215
2026-01-18 0.446399 1.029664 2.151774 4.348999 8.372743 15.186341 27.232633
2026-01-25 0.366296 0.901258 1.984145 4.198372 8.408886 15.771989 29.167572
2026-02-01 0.300621 0.788492 1.826601 4.040429 8.405574 16.277299 30.992063
2026-02-08 0.260013 0.722822 1.752973 4.033964 8.678324 17.283005 33.753973
2026-02-15 0.225370 0.664706 1.688085 4.040882 8.986531 18.396687 36.833002
2026-02-22 0.192511 0.603309 1.605487 3.998504 9.191480 19.336951 39.675304
2026-03-01 0.155765 0.521950 1.461607 3.799322 9.048825 19.598045 41.266802
2026-03-08 0.133917 0.476387 1.395403 3.765548 9.248626 20.538974 44.220217
2026-03-15 0.116241 0.438366 1.341055 3.750934 9.486261 21.571683 47.425238
2026-03-22 0.110655 0.436822 1.382135 3.973981 10.277914 23.797296 53.154656
2026-03-29 0.100958 0.419259 1.376609 4.079101 10.809312 25.520316 57.985027
2026-04-05 0.094438 0.410891 1.395447 4.249200 11.509165 27.651620 63.793182
2026-04-12 0.083430 0.383303 1.353621 4.253058 11.811405 28.947769 67.948475
2026-04-19 0.069828 0.341568 1.261150 4.105415 11.726290 29.385122 70.315703
2026-04-26 0.058157 0.303290 1.171303 3.950612 11.603921 29.724991 72.490572